Crazy Transfer Window for Arsenal - Part 2/2

The transfer circus is finally over. Clubs scrambled for last minute deals. Some got through, some didn't. Arsenal went through the day apparently bidding for some top players like Lemar and Draxler but, as you already know by now, it went flat. Sanchez remained with Arsenal and so did Ozil. Mustafi staying was, for me, the best thing that happened for Arsenal on the deadline day. So, barring the last day conundrum, how was Arsenals transfer window?

Let's do some expectation setting here before analyzing the window. We are talking about a club who fall in the below categories –

1. Europa league, not in the champions league

2. Has lots of fringe players who won't make it to first team either they don't deserve or manager thinks they don't

3. Frugal spending mindset

4. Still believes they can win the domestic league and turn a profit the same season (a la Leicester)

Given the above traits, how was Arsenals window?

On the positive side, Wenger said he will keep hold of his top players and he did! Ox doesn't fall in this category and the Ox deal was, in fact, a great bit of business by Arsenal as it ensured two things – sell a player who doesn't fit the Arsenal structure on the ground and prevented Liverpool to bid for Lemar. The fact that we didn't buy Lemar either is a different story altogether. Either way that's 40 million well earned. Ozil's side was quiet on the last day and it appears to me that Arsenal will eventually get Ozil to sign a new deal. Had Arsenal decided to sell Sanchez and Ozil, they would've got a sum north of 100 million. The fact that Arsenal didn't go ahead with it, itself is a welcome deviation from the norm! Arsenal also managed to sell / loan fringe players and kept them off the wage bill. Arsenal bought two top players early in the window from their respective leagues in Kolasinac and Lacazette. Nice additions and one that Arsenal fans, like me, won't regret.

On the negative side, Arsenal sold Szczesny. I just cannot fathom why would Arsenal do that! Szczesny had two fruitful years on loan and was ready to take on the mantle from Cech, who isn't getting any better and younger. Ospina always wanted to leave and Arsenal are now stuck with him. Selling Gabriel also came as a surprise. Although not a top defender, he was a useful squad player. He can be a backup player at CB and can also cover the team at right back. Given the way the deadline day went, Arsenal are now left with two frustrated players in Sanchez and Mustafi. Both wanted to leave and it just didn't happen. Now they return to the team they didn’t want to be a part of! Imagine the feeling they will be going through and more importantly imagine the dressing room atmosphere. If news reports are to be believed, some players wanted Sanchez to leave because his tantrums were not helping the teams’ cause. Now Sanchez comes back to a team who doesn't want him and who he doesn't want either. What a combustible environment and one which Arsenal could've avoided.

A day after, it feels like Arsenal’s "business" dealings weren't bad after all. Yes, from a footballing point of view, this was a horrible window. Arsenal needed at least one defender with Koscienly and Mertesacker at the wrong end of 30. Maybe retaining Chambers was the answer and time will tell if it was the right decision. Arsenal needed a commanding midfielder with only Xhaka and Ramsey as first team players. Both these players aren't consistent enough to dominate the midfield. Elneny is an able backup. I am not sure where Coq and Wilshere stand in all of this. Arsenal are forward-heavy but not world class enough to score on a consistent basis. It feels like early 2010 when Arsenal had only average players and Wenger still ended up in top 4.

It will be a surprise if Arsenal wins anything this season with the players Wenger has at his disposal and the unwanted dressing room situation. Add to that, teams like Liverpool, Chelsea, Everton and Tottenham have added quality. Manchester teams are already early favorites for the title. This makes top 4 (Arsenals own trophy) highly unattainable.

Catalyst for change, anyone?

Crazy Transfer Window for Arsenal - Part 1/2

One day to go. One day to salvage something from this transfer window, if you are in any way linked with Arsenal. 

Arsenal began the window with measured optimism. Sead Kolasinac joined the club for free. Yes, not just free but Wenger certified free! Oh, a bargain! In the long run, this transfer may turn out to be the bargain of the window from a value for money perspective. And Kolasinac is not just any left back who Arsenal got for free. He's strong, powerful and can make some lung-busting sprints from the left side of the defense which is a valuable trait in a league where flanks are the main counter-attacking route. This aspect is what Arsenal missed in the game against Liverpool. He could've controlled Mane better. 

Then came the record breaking signing of Lyon forward Lacazette. This was the kind of signing Arsenal fans wanted for a long time. It appears that Arsenal have finally replaced Robin van Persie - like for like. Lacazette is a poacher and a finisher of some repute. With Ozil providing, Lacazette only stands to gain by scoring goals expected of him (theoretically, that is). The potential in this Arsenal squad looked tempting and Arsenal fans couldn't wait for the season to start (how things changed!). 

To ensure that this transfer window is successful, Arsenal also had a challenge of letting out fringe players thereby recouping some amount and letting them off the weekly wages. Wenger was successful in selling players like Szczesny and Gabriel, both questionable moves as they could've challenged for first team positions. Gibbs is joining West Brom, which appears to be the right decision for all concerned. Ox could well be on his way to Liverpool. Arsenal still have players like Perez, Debuchy, Wilshere on their books all of whom needs immediate attention. 

But the biggest concern is the Chilean – Sanchez! 

Alexis Sanchez, Arsenals biggest hope of winning something this season, is on his way out. Arsenal tried enticing him to sign a new contract, failed, tried again, and failed again. Wenger then went on to say that Sanchez will not be sold in this window. This statement was later tweaked to "Sanchez will not be sold, but board will have the final say" - as if to wash his hands off the Sanchez saga. Now, with a day remaining in the window, what remains is that Sanchez will be sold only for a crazy amount of money or cash + player deal. Manchester City appears to be the interested party. Doesn't it sound like van Persie to Manchester United deal? If Sanchez goes to City, that's like handing City the title on a platter. Sanchez staying will be a financial loss for Arsenal from a business perspective unless Arsenal go on to win the Premier League or at least reach the top 4 (a gain of approximately 30m which can justify Sanchez leaving on a bosman). Considering the form and momentum Arsenal carry, as on date, none appears likely. So, selling Sanchez and reinvesting in an attacking player appears to be the rational choice. 

Another player who can leave on a free next season is Ozil. But, unlike Sanchez, Ozil has always shown a likeness for Arsenal and has made it very clear in no uncertain terms that he wants to stay. For Arsenal, it's great to hear this from a world class attacking midfielder but it amounts to nothing on paper. The dotted lines in the new deal on the table remains empty. Also, unlike Sanchez, there aren't many takers for Ozil in the market. I suspect Dortmund may make a move now that they have sold Dembele and are sitting on a cash pile. But will Arsenal sell? Your guess is as good as mine. 

The climax is just a day away. We are in for a roller coaster ride. Fasten your seat belts. But if you are an Arsenal fan (like me), you probably know that lightning only struck once on transfer deadline day - when Ozil joined. Can it happen again (cough cough *van Dijk* *Asensio* *Seri* *Draxler* cough)? 

Irony: Wenger always wanted the window to close before the season begins. Now these last few hours will be worth the value of gold (or Neymar, whichever is more) for him!

Part 2 of this will be the analysis after the window is closed.

Possible ways to handle the Sanchez situation?

Arsenal are in a conundrum. Their best player is not signing a contract extension. Sounds familiar? We have been there before and we have messed up big time before. We sold our top players to an upcoming cash rich team in Manchester City in 2011 and they went on to achieve big things and are now among the top 4 teams in the premier league. We sold our best player, RvP, to Manchester United in 2012 and they went on to win the premier league that season. In 2000's, we sold perhaps the best left back in the league, Cole, to strengthen our London rivals in Chelsea. Yes, all that was to finance our new stadium, but at what cost?

The circle is repeating itself again. 

Alexis Sanchez is the player involved this time. Sanchez scored 30 goals in total last season and when we add double-digit assists, we know this was a breakout season for him. Arsenal have an offer on the table for Sanchez which is much better than his current one and perhaps comparable to offers from other teams. But Sanchez hasn't signed it yet. When asked, Sanchez said he is sure about what he will do next season but won't reveal it yet. All these statements are facts. 

Now about unconfirmed statements - Sanchez wants to join Guardiola in Manchester City. Sanchez is asking for 400k in weekly remuneration from Arsenal to sign contract extension. Sanchez wants to leave Arsenal as we are no longer in Champions League (akin to leaving the sinking ship argument). Bayern have moved away from signing Sanchez due to the cost involved. Chelsea are monitoring the situation. Inter Milan is the latest entrant to entice Sanchez. 

What can Arsenal do in this situation? Cash-in like we did last time? And to whom? See out Sanchez' contract, like we haven't done ever with our top players! Give him what he needs and let him sign on the dotted line? Every option comes with pros and cons. And is not as easy as it sounds too.

This is what I think Arsenal should do, in decreasing order of priority - 

3. Sell him to maximum bidder - The easiest option to balance the books. We have experience in this regard. Sanchez going to Manchester City will immediately catapult the citizens as favorites to win the league this season. Arsenal, on their part, is bound to received at least 30-35 million - a decent amount for a player in the last year of contractual obligation. But, if this happens, Arsenal will remain as the team that doesn't have a winning spirit as we strengthen our rivals and decrease our own chance of winning the league. Where's the ambition? Yes, that amount recuperated will be spent on buying players, but that's always a risk, a risk that has hardly benefited Arsenal in the past. In my opinion, this should be the last option, unless Sanchez throws in the kitchen sink to force through a move to Manchester City.

2. Sell him abroad, not necessarily the highest bidder - A rational option for Arsenal to pursue is to sell him abroad. Arsenal won't get the money Manchester City were ready to pay, but will ensure Sanchez doesn't remain in the premier league and lead our competitors to league glory. So, who are the options? Real Madrid and Barcelona won't be interested as they are already full of top talent and Sanchez was a reject from Barcelona (irony!). That leaves teams like PSG from France, Bayern from Germany and Inter Milan from Italy. It appears that Bayern had shown interest but backed out due to cost constraints. PSG and Inter are cash rich clubs and can offer what Sanchez is looking for - assuming Sanchez needs more cash, Champions League and Trophies.

1. See out Sanchez' contract - Let me just state on record that I will be shocked if this happens. I have been an Arsenal fan for long. And I know for a fact that Arsenal won't allow the situation to come to this stage. Arsenal is a professionally run club that is equally interested in trophies and profits. But what a statement of intent will it be! The footballing world hasn't seen such an Arsenal club before. If we don't allow Sanchez to force through a move, we will have Sanchez for one more year. Add Lacazette and Ozil in the attacking three, we are truly a team that will challenge for the league this year. A positive string of matches followed by a killer instinct to win the games and the chemistry might just force Sanchez to believe Arsenal is the club where he should continue. And he might just sign an extension. If we lose him on a free next season, so be it. This statement will change the perception of Arsenal in the footballing circle and the players will know that Arsenal means business when it comes to honoring contracts. 

Of course, the above options are assuming Sanchez is hell bent on leaving. Media is painting a dark perception of Sanchez and we, as Arsenal fans, should not fall for it. Sanchez hasn't mentioned anything concrete yet. I personally want Sanchez to stay but there's a part of me that feels he will leave. If his priority is participation in the Champions League and a better contract (probably his last big contract) is the key, then we cannot offer him that. 

Arsenal, please make a statement here. Take a financial hit. Maybe Sanchez for one more year will be like a new signing!

Sead Kolasinac - A statistical comparison

Arsenal just made their first signing. Sead Kolasinac, Welcome to Arsenal! I will admit it was one of the worst kept secrets, but a relief to know that we are in the transfer market this early and making things happen.

Sead Kolasinac is primarily a left back who played for Schalke and is now in the last month of his contract. Arsenal pulled a march on rival clubs who had Kolasinac in their radars. I am sure Wenger was impressed with few factors that helped Arsenal track Kolasinac and finally winning the transfer battle. For one, he is young (23). He is versatile, an attribute that rates highly for Wenger. He can play left back, left centre back in a 3-4-2-1 system (which reaped dividends in the latter part of last season), left wing-back and, if needed, further forward as a left winger. Add to this, the fact that he was available for free transfer was the icing on the cake for Wenger. In more ways than one, he is a young and ideal replacement to an ageing yet effective Nacho Monreal. 

Let's have a look at how Kolasinac fares in comparison to Arsenal left-backs and Danny Rose (included in PFA team of the season as a left back for 2016-17 season) - 

Defensive Statistical Comparison - 

From a defensive standpoint, Arsenal have definitely got an upgrade on our existing left back and a player comparable to the current best left of the league. That is quite a statement! Kolasinac is statistically better in many of the defensive attributes in the comparison. He has won 2.22 tackles per 90 minutes and it's better than even Danny Rose. Same can be said about his interception count (3.39 per 90 minutes) and defensive errors (0). He is behind Monreal on blocks count but better than Rose (0.22 v/s 0.31 for Monreal) but you must know that Monreal has played in a centre back role where blocking a shot has more weightage. He has received more yellow cards than Monreal (experience counts) but much less than Danny Rose. His clearance count and fouls committed as the worst in the comparison (which will be the attributes he plan to improve given that he's only 23).

Attacking Statistical Comparison - 

A defender's primary and clear responsibility used to be to help teams to concede no / less goals. Anything more was usually a bonus. Not anymore. Defenders contribute to the attacking prowess of the team as well. Kolasinac has scored more goals and provided more assists per 90 minutes than any of the players listed here for comparison - which is definitely a match for a team like Arsenal who is more attack minded. So when Arsenal switches from defense to attack, expect Kolasinac to sprint down from the left side of the field and be ready to support the attackers. His attack score and total score are not the best but definitely comparable to the best that Arsenal has and the best in the league. 

Conclusion - Arsenal have opened the transfer dealings on a positive note. Kolasinac is definitely an upgrade over the existing setup. And with age on his side, expect him to continue his development and get even better. The only downside is his injury background. But Arsenal backroom staff are better equipped in that level going by their performance in the last season (least injuries compared to previous seasons). Some of the Arsenal fans may not be excited by Kolasinac joining and that's primarily due to his transfer amount - 0. But we need to understand, he chose to see off his contract (a sign of loyalty, if you may) and get the best possible deal for himself and his new team. Kolasinac ends up as a winner in this deal and Arsenal joins him in the winning list as well. 

Stats compiled from Squawka Comparison Matrix - click here for link.