Arvind Kejriwal's (likely) political strategy

Since India won the ICC world cup in 2011, a storm has swept India. Storm of an 'anti-corruption' movement lead by a Gandhian in Anna Hazare. He was supported by people from various walks of life including Prashant Bhushan, Arvind Kejriwal, Kiran Bedi etc. It started with a bang and a clear target in mind - the ruling party - UPA. Some said it's acting as a front end of one of the opposing parties. RSS was one of the parties mentioned as supporting the 'anti-corruption' movement from the back-end. The ruling party hit back using the strategy known best to mankind - 'If the strength of your enemy lies in unity, try division'. Ironically, Congress slapped corruption charges to individual members of the new christened 'Team Anna'. Other members of the group, though providing support, stayed away from defending corruption charges. The strategy worked to an extent. Some group members garnered political aspirations while the leader had other ideas. Which lead to an unlikely event - split.

Team Anna (social group) became Team Kejriwal (political group). Anna's decision to stay clear of the political group suddenly dented Kejriwal and his supporters to enter politics in a big way.

There are two ways to look at Kejriwal's political move:

1. To change the system, you have to first be in the system. This adage says it all.
2. This was the expected climax of the now defunct 'Team Anna'. The idea was to involve as much people as possible, create awareness of 'anti-corruption' movement, blame politicians for being corrupt and eventually be a politician themselves.

Now I was left wondering about the next political step for Arvind Kejriwal. He seems to be a street-smart person with a long term future in Indian politics. There is a ruling party positioned on secularism and an opposition party positioned on Hindutva. There's an emerging third front whose ideologies doesn't belong to either of the top 2 groups. They are currently supporting the ruling party or opposition party or no one (like Trinamool Congress). Team Kejriwal has to fit in somewhere.

For the past one and a half years, Team Anna has targeted the Congress. The mandate is crystal clear. Hence, being a part of the Congress / UPA is out of question. That leaves BJP / NDA. This will add fuel to the earlier assumption of RSS supporting Team Anna's movement from behind. Other scenario would be to lend leadership to the emerging third front. Hey, its Indian politics, anything can happen.

Kejriwal's political strategy: Kejriwal has attacked the Congress family as part of his first big step. Robert Vadra was his first victim. The next big move involved Salman Khurshid. Then it was BJP's turn with Nitin Gadkari. Corporates had their moment in the sun too with Mukesh Ambani being targeted. Kejriwal cannot attack all the parties with corruption charges. He needs support in democracy. I foresee Kejriwal continuing the attack on Congress till the general elections with BJP playing catch-up and the third front waiting to strike when the iron is hot.

What it means:

1. Congress: Congress is definitely on the back foot here. They know their future is in serious jeopardy. Winning the next election is obviously their top priority. But with so much hate among Indian citizens and issues like price rise, corruption, a 'silent' PM, their chances are slim. They are giving their best shot though. Their weapon - FDI. Wonder how much impact will that have in the near future. Also, with small alliances demanding more, their majority is being questioned. Don't be surprised if there's an early election round the corner.
2. BJP: They have problems of their own. If UPA hasn't done their bit for the country as ruling party, NDA hasn't done their part as the opposition as well. Disrupting parliament never helps anyone. They also have their own leadership problems to sort now that Gadkari is in the line of fire. They are still clueless as to who will be their PM candidate. A problem of many leaders with PM ambitions. Kejriwal's party has come as a blessing in disguise for them. Having a common enemy in Congress is a huge boost although they don't know how to use this to their advantage.
3. Supposed 'Third Front': These are regional parties with votes that can swing the result either ways. They are the joker in the pack. Being a group of regional parties, they need a single leader who can contest in the centre. That's one opening Kejriwal could be exploring. However, I still don't believe they will have a significant impact in 2014 elections. But come 2019 (or maybe earlier), they will decide the ruling party. Maybe they will be the ruling party. 

Interesting times ahead for Indian politics.

PS: Writing about politics is risky business. Unless, of course, you have a clear mandate to support one party and / or criticize the other. I am not a supporter of Congress' way of leading the country nor BJP's supporter of Hindutva. And I definitely don't want the 'third front' to emerge. The party that preaches and delivers on good and steady governance with secular ideas will find one supporter in me (Utopian state though). Till that time happens, I will support the parties that I think are 'less corrupt of the lot'.

Whose Lokpal is it anyway?

Lokpal bill came to the limelight. Amidst fasting, Government promised to pass a 'strong' Lokpal. Congress lost in some key constituencies presumably because Team Anna were against Congress. Government decided to discuss and pass Lokpal bill in the winter session of the Parliament. Somehow someway Lok Sabha passed the bill. The proverbial final frontier was the Rajya Sabha. What happened?

Some say its mockery. Some call it cheating. Some think everything was staged. Congress says BJP didn't allow the bill to be passed. BJP says Congress had a weak Lokpal which cannot be passed. Trinamool Congress wants Lokayukta clause to be eliminated. Others want reservation. Everyone wanted a share of the pie. And everyone is blaming everyone else for the debacle!

Just a query: Isn't our constitution - of the people, for the people and by the people? Where are the 'people' in all this mess? Arun Jaitley is partly right. The last day of Rajya Sabha was orchestrated. But what he failed to mention was that it was a joint effort by all the parties actively involved that day!

Congress has been in power for the last 2 terms. They chances of continuing for another term seems bleak with all the black money issue, corruption in commonwealth games, 2G etc. If the Lokpal bill was passed and implemented subsequently, then most of their politicians will be fighting corruption cases and eventually behind bars. No doubt about it! It's all about the blame game now. Result will remain the same. Congress wants to make hay while the sun shines.

BJP has lost the last 2 terms and had nothing on their radar to fight for. They had their own leadership issues. They didn't have a leader who can stand for PM. Even their leader Nitin Gadkari doesn't have any PM ambitions. Others who want to be PM, have a tainted past. BJP also have their share of scams to boast of. When BJP was going through their internal mess, Anna entered the scene. Though Anna doesn't belong to any political party (as is being proclaimed), Anna's actions decimated the Congress and thereby gave BJP a glimmer of hope and a reason for survival. Though BJP wants to have a strong Lokpal bill and is clearly following Anna, most of their own politicians will be behind bars if a strong Lokpal is implemented.

The other parties want to make a name for themselves on the national stage. They have their own personal mandates and reasons why the current Lokpal bill is not a strong one. Removal of Lokayukta, reservations for example. Period.

Then there are some politicians (handful of them) who genuinely wants a strong Lokpal. But, as is always the case in a democracy, majority matters.



Image: http://www.manjul.com/cartoons/

No politician worth his (adulterated) salt would like to kill a hen that lays golden eggs! Its a profession where power is everything and money is just an added benefit. If Lokpal is introduced and if we assume Lokpal carries out its tasks honestly (big assumption), then, as Anna said, most of the politicians will be behind bars and we won't have a government to run our country.

Now, coming back to the basic question - Will Jan Lokpal bill ever be passed?

Call me a pessimist. I am afraid, Lokpal bill will not be passed given the current situation and known variables (mentioned above). If at all the bill gets passed, take my word - it will be for a new variable (situation) that we are not aware of. It may even be for winning brownie points for the general elections. Who knows! Atleast the people who should have mattered, don't!

This post has been selected as one of the picks for Blogjunta's Editor Choice.