Saturday, March 21, 2015

Shahid Afridi - eternal youngster, all-rounder and an enigma

Shahid Afridi has left the ODI crease. This time for good. Shahid Afridi retiring from ODI cricket didn’t come as a surprise to me (and if he overturns his decision again, it won’t be a surprise either).

Shahid Afridi's ODI Stats –
Shahid Afridi - ODI career statistics
When you think of Afridi, the first thing that comes to mind is his 37-ball century. The impact of that innings was so profound that it becomes difficult for a neutral fan to think beyond that innings. But, believe it or not, there’s more to Afridi than that century. For a moment, stop thinking of Afridi as a batsmen and think of him as a bowler who can bat and you start analysing his ODI career stat in a different way!

Stats by batting position –
Shahid Afridi - ODI statistics by batting position
Stats by bowling position –
Shahid Afridi - ODI statistics by bowling position
One look at the above stats reveal that he has been all over the place. Was he a pure batsmen? Not really sure since he has played in all positions (baring 11th) in the batting line-up with an average of 23.57. Was he a bowler? Yes, 395 wickets in ODI format is not a fluke. Was he a fielder? Someone who debuted in the 1990’s are usually not known to be as good as the fielders of today, but he wasn’t bad either. So, can we safely claim he’s an all-rounder? Statistically, he definitely is. Is he one of the best all-rounders? Debatable. 

Afridi started his career as a batsman who can bowl leg-breaks. He ended as a bowler who can bat a bit. His initial batting success raised expectations from him (more so being from Asia where Cricket is the biggest religion) and he never stood up to those expectations vis-à-vis batting. But he was always a joker-in-the-pack. You never know when he makes a difference.

Personally, I have been a huge fan of Shahid Afridi. What makes Afridi special for me is the time he made his ODI debut. If we recollect, mid-1990’s was a time when ODI cricket was undergoing a paradigm shift. Some players, including Sanath Jayasuriya (predominantly a bowler who was given the responsibility to bat as an opener) and Shahid Afridi, were changing the way batsmen were batting. Risk taking, attacking the opposition in the first 15 overs during the fielding restriction were emerging as a key weapon to get a heads-up on the opposition. We remember Jayasuriya as the key proponent of that change. Very few remember Afridi for playing a key part. For a neutral fan, there’s never a dull moment when he’s batting. There are only two modes – boom boom or bust! And that’s the only thing that made me sit and watch his batting whenever I got the opportunity.

Only 3 players in ODI cricket have scored more than 8000 runs and taken more than 250 wickets…
Statistics of Top 3 All Rounders in ODI Cricket - Kallis, Jayasuriya and Afridi
… and Afridi is in that list, behind only Kallis and Jayasuriya!

For me, Afridi will remain an enigma. He was always the danger man when he’s at the crease – either to the opposition or sometimes to his own team. His last innings was testament of the latter. Five wickets down for 100-odd runs, Afridi arrived at the crease, Pakistan needed Afridi to apply himself, rotate strike, build a partnership and steady the ship. Afridi, however, played a typical “Afridi-sque” innings of 15-ball 23 and departed, much to the disappointment of Pakistani fans. But hey, that’s the only way he plays!

Shahid Afridi, thank you for entertaining 18 years. Cricketing world will surely miss an unpredictable and enigmatic character like you.

PS: all statistical data queried and taken from statsguru, courtesy espncricinfo,com.

Tuesday, March 17, 2015

CWC 2015: Were the group matches worth it?

We are now done with 42 group matches to decide the final 8 out of a total 14 teams that participated in this World Cup. And baring England, there were no surprises at all. Yes, we got to see some fantastic batting - AB De Villiers, Chris Gayle, Virat Kohli, Shikhar Dhawan to name a few. We got some really close encounters too. And I must admit, there were some surprises in the order in which the top 4 teams finished in their respective group. But all's well that ends well. The real World Cup starts now. There are 7 matches remaining that will decide who will reign for the next 4 years.

Analysis of Group Stages - 

To analyze how the group stages went, I decided to add up all the results of the group stages on MS excel, categorized them according to some standard set of results (given below) and came up with a table for analysis.

Before I get to the table, here's what each set of result category means - 

CWC Cricket World Cup - Group stage analysis category

For example, if a team batting first won the match by 45 runs, the result will be categorized as "3. Not a bad game". If a team bowling first wins the match by 6 wickets, the result will be categorized as "5. Was that even competitive?". Now, I understand that categorizing a result based on victory margin alone may not depict the whole picture and there will be exceptions (a team bowling first wins by 8 wickets but only 2 balls to spare is actually a competitive match). But such results have hardly happened in the group stages, so we can keep the exceptions aside.

Using the categories defined above, here's how the group stages fared -

CWC Cricket World Cup - Group stage analysis Table

What's strikingly obvious in my analysis is that 60% of the matches were largely one-sided. If you add category 4 to this list, more than 3/4th matches were easy for one team to win. Less than 1 in every four game had some element of competition and only 7% of games were actually nail-biting stuff. I can even mention those games - Afghanistan v/s Scotland (1 wicket), New Zealand v/s Australia (1 wicket) and Ireland v/s Zimbabwe (5 runs). Some matches promised a lot, but didn't go the distance (like Australia - Sri Lanka and India - Pakistan). And there were some that completely degraded the competitive game between bat and ball (like South Africa v/s West Indies, margin of victory 257 runs).This is hardly an advertisement of Cricket, let alone the World Cup. 

Were the Group matches worth it? 

Largely, the answer is No. But the problem is more deep than the superficially described "associate" problem. Before the World Cup began, there were concerns from a lot of Cricket followers regarding "associate" teams. Adding associate teams will dilute the competition in this World Cup. was one of the concern raised. Personally, I don't think their presence has diluted the competition. If you see the closest games in the competition so far, 2 (out of a possible 3) were played by associate teams. Loss to Zimbabwe was instrumental in England getting knocked out of the World Cup. Bangladesh (although not an associate) defeated England. Ireland defeated West Indies. If at all anything, the test playing nations - the so called better cricket playing teams - failed to play at a competitive level expected of them. Don't just blame the associates for this. The problem lies in the way different test playing teams approached this World Cup. And yes, its a sorry state of affairs and ICC will do themselves a world of good if they go back to the drawing board and plan for the next edition in England.

Solution -

One possible solution will be to allow all test playing teams to enter the qualifying rounds, the same route an associate team goes through and only the top 8 teams qualify for the World Cup. Then these 8 teams can be divided into 2 pools where they play each other twice (i.e. a total of 6 games per team). This will also allow some teams to make a comeback despite a bad start. The top 2 teams from each pool will qualify for semifinals. 

What's next for this World Cup? 

I predicted 4 teams to reach the semi-finals (Australia, New Zealand, India, South Africa) and all 4 of them have qualified for the knock-outs. These 4 teams have lost only 3 matches between them. I must admit, I am surprised to see New Zealand and India topping their respective groups but these teams are in the form of their lives! However, all they carry to the knockout phase is their momentum, their points / position hardly matters now. One loss and they are out.

7 games to go | One team will remain standing | One champion. Let the real World Cup begin.

Monday, February 09, 2015

CWC 2015: Team to watch - New Zealand

Black caps – as they are called. Also known as Perennial Dark horses to most of the cricket fans. But they always remain a threat! They enter the 2015 Cricket World Cup with their image remaining intact. Historically, New Zealand has done well in the World Cups. They have reached semi-finals on 6 out of a possible 10 occasions (that’s a healthy 60% chance of making it in the final 4), the last one being in 2011 when they lost to co-host Sri Lanka. In fact, they were the only non-Asian team to make it to the semi-finals in 2011. That says a lot about New Zealand and their ability to dig in when it matters the most.

Recent ODI Form – last 12 months * 
New Zealand team stats - Recent Form in ODI Cricket (last 12 months)

Form in Australia – last 24 months *
New Zealand team stats - Recent Form in ODI Cricket in Australia (last 24 months)

Form in ODI World Cup events *
New Zealand Cricket team statistic- Form in ODI World Cup events

Out of the total teams I have previewed (5 of them to be precise), New Zealand have lowest win / loss ratio, which is marginally better than Sri Lanka. Also, out of the 17 ODIs played by the Black Caps in the last one year, only 5 of them have been outside New Zealand. Their success ratio is less than 50%, which is also the lowest among these five teams. What's interesting to note is that their batting statistic (Avg. Runs / Wicket, RPO, Highest Lowest Scores) is better than what Aussies have achieved during the same period albeit with better results. This means they have the resources to deliver. They will need their captain (McCullum) and ODI specialists (Williamson and Taylor) to rise above expectation on the biggest stage of them all.

SWOT Analysis – 
  • Strengths – 
    • Batsmen best suited to the shorter version of the game
    • Strong bowling attack with mixture of pace and spin
    • Recent form and momentum leading to the event
    • Home conditions
  • Weaknesses – 
    • Unpredictable. Can succumb to better teams
    • Although last few months were great, form over past 4 years are worth ignoring
  • Opportunities – 
    • On track to make a mockery of the seeding (Bangladesh above New Zealand)
    • Opportunity to reach the knockouts as the 2nd best team in the pool
    • “Dark horses” tag will help them go far as expectations will be less
  • Threats – 
    • Relatively stronger pool compared to pool B. 5 teams realistically vying for top 4
    • Although they have reached semifinals 6 times, they are yet to win any. Choking, anyone?
    • Possible exhaustion, since they have played no less than 8 ODI’s in January (that’s almost 1 ODI every 4 days).

After Australia and South Africa, New Zealand are easily the most balanced side in the tournament. Their batsmen are in top form, their bowlers are delivering the goods and we don’t need to mention how good they are in the fielding department. They have been winning matches off late, most of them in convincing fashion. They also stand to benefit from their pool fixtures. They will start against a strong team followed by a relatively weaker team, then a strong team and so on. This means, even if they lose a game against a strong side, they can more than make up for it against a weak team. You may argue how a fixture can help teams since all the teams in a pool will play each other. I agree. But you’d rather be in the top 4 than the bottom 3 after 4 odd matches. No team will prefer to be in a must-win game to qualify for the knockouts. Form favours them; condition favours them and now fixtures too. This could just be their year!

Like South Africa, they are yet to show the cricketing world their full potential. Both these teams haven’t reached a final of World Cup. Anyone fancying a South Africa v/s New Zealand final? Wouldn’t that balance the statistics somewhat? Wouldn’t it be great if the winner of 2015 World Cup be someone who has won it for the first time?

Click here to view all the posts on Cricket World Cup 2015.

* The above statistics have been compiled using http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ for the duration of 1 year or 2 years (based on the statistic) till 31st Jan 2015.

Sunday, February 08, 2015

CWC 2015: Team to watch - Sri Lanka

A team who were just one game away from winning the last 2 World Cups will come into this event with a much tougher proposition this time. Sri Lanka has a huge mountain to climb this time mainly because of injury to some of their key players and their lack of match practice. On the positive side, they have the most experienced squad of the lot, a trait that is bound to help them overcome high pressure moments / event like this World Cup. Will they take their performance one notch ahead of what they achieved in the last two editions of the World Cup?

Recent ODI Form – last 12 months *
Sri Lanka team stats - Recent Form in ODI Cricket (last 12 months)

Form in Australia – last 24 months *
Sri Lanka team stats - Recent Form in ODI Cricket in Australia (last 24 months)

Form in ODI World Cup events *
Sri Lanka Cricket team statistic- Form in ODI World Cup events
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Sri Lanka have played more ODIs than any other team in the last one year. It also shouldn’t come as a surprise that they have won more ODIs than any other team in the same duration. Their success ratio is a decent 56.4% and a win loss ratio of 1.4. Of the 22 games they have won in a year, 16 have come in Asian countries and only 6 were away wins. They have not played in Australia in recent times but have recent experience playing in New Zealand, something that can help them acclimatize.  Although the result of the series against the Black Caps will be something they want to forget (lost 4-2). Their batting will rely heavily on Sangakkara, Dilshan and Jayawardene along with All-Rounder Angelo Mathews (currently injured but will be fit for the World Cup). Their bowling rests heavily on Malinga. If these players perform, Sri Lanka can go the distance, else it will be an early flight back home.

SWOT Analysis – 
  • Strengths – 
    • Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene are still present
    • Strong performances in a World Cup stage (finalist in 2007 and 2011)
  • Weaknesses – 
    • Relatively poor fielding team
    • Non-performing bowlers in the death overs
    • Too much dependence on some players
  • Opportunities – 
    • 2nd position in the pool is up for the taking
    • Have played in New Zealand before the world cup (similar conditions)
    • Less expectation considering the recent performances and loss of key players
  • Threats – 
    • They can easily self-destruct (a trait applicable to all Asian teams)

Although Sri Lanka has the most experienced squad, it is not spread equally among batsmen and bowlers. And that is where the disparity lies. Lasith Malinga is returning from injury and his form will be a huge factor, either ways. Sri Lanka doesn’t have a quality death bowler as proved in their series against New Zealand and this deficit will haunt them especially in matches against the top teams. Even Malinga hasn’t been effective for Sri Lanka in the last two years (economy rate of 5.79 against career economy of 5.21). Bowlers have no alternative but to step up big time (big ask at this point). 

Sri Lanka would want to win this cup for their batting legends (who will retire after the World Cup) just the way India did in 2011. In more ways than one, Sri Lanka circumstances are similar to the Indian team in 2011. Despite the obvious flaws, they have the heart in the right place and this time, they can just take it one step ahead of where they were in the last 2 World Cups.

PS: A special thanks to Kumar Sangakkara and Mahela Jayawardene for providing cricket fans with a wonderful batting treat spanning across many years. Your boots will be tough for Sri Lanka to fill.

Click here to view all the posts on Cricket World Cup 2015.

* The above statistics have been compiled using http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ for the duration of 1 year or 2 years (based on the statistic) till 31st Jan 2015.

Saturday, February 07, 2015

CWC 2015: Team to watch - India

Team India remains an enigma. They have the capability to win against all odds, but can also give up tamely when expected to win. India winning the last World Cup made 1/6th of the World population super-elated – just to emphasize the point, elation of this magnitude has never happened before in any sport. But that was then. A lot of changes have happened since. The biggest of them was Sachin Tendulkar’s retirement from the game. Ideally, there’s no one who can replace the little master. But India found a new youngster who can compete for that position and importance in the team – Virat Kohli. India is known to be a team who is perfect for an ODI or a T20 format irrespective of the pitch and conditions (assuming we can safely ignore the recent debacle down under).

Recent ODI Form – last 12 months *
India team stats - Recent Form in ODI Cricket (last 12 months)

Form in Australia – last 24 months *
India team stats - Recent Form in ODI Cricket in Australia (last 24 months)

Form in ODI World Cup events *
India Cricket team statistic- Form in ODI World Cup eventsIndia has had a mixed-bag 12 months. They have had some great moments followed some mediocre phases. The point to note is that mediocre ones have come away from home. From a comparative standpoint, only two teams have performed better than India in the last 1 year – Australia and South Africa. India has won 14 of the last 24 ODIs played – a success % of 58.33. Most of their victories came against Sri Lanka (5 of them at home), Bangladesh and England (3 each), West Indies (2) and Afghanistan (1). This shows they either had home advantage or the opposition was relatively less talented (England being an exception). On the positive side, the scoring pattern is in line with how Australia has performed, the only difference being Australia has a much better bowling line-up. In Australian conditions, India has played 4 ODIs in the past 1 year (all 4 in the recently concluded tri-series where India failed to register a single victory). The data is too small to make a calculated judgement, but lack of a single win in Australia poses serious questions to India and what to expect from the team in the World Cup.

SWOT Analysis – 
  • Strengths – 
    • World class ODI batsmen in the squad
    • Cool captain and (still) the best finisher in the world (cue: World Cup final 2011)
    • Worldwide support (even in Australia). We Indians are everywhere!
  • Weaknesses – 
    • Alien conditions and recent performance
    • Non-performing bowlers
    • Lack of confidence and momentum
  • Opportunities – 
    • Can finish the pool at #2 or #1 especially considering the teams in the pool
    • Knowledge of conditions since players have recently played in Australia
    • Relatively lesser expectation considering the recent performances
  • Threats – 
    • Unpredictable teams can diminish India’s chances of finishing higher in the pool
    • IPL scam running in parallel can name some team players disrupting team harmony

Although India have been extremely poor off late, they cannot be ignored. Opposition teams know what this Indian team is capable of. A good start (against Pakistan, no less) will kick-start their campaign in style and the forgettable memories of the recent tri-series will soon fade. A loss against Pakistan, however, will be tougher to cope at a psychological level considering the importance of the match. If Indian bowlers can stand up to the pressure and expectation from the team / fans, we are in for a win-win situation! Indians fans will absolutely love it. From a marketing angle, the brands will enjoy more eye-balls. ICC will stand to gain with more ad revenue per 10 seconds. If the performance dips, all stand to lose. In that case, expect the Aussies / Proteas to hog the limelight. The revelations of the IPL betting scam may impact the performance too. 

Team India claims we #WontGiveItBack. Hope we live up to our claim. 

Click here to view all the posts on Cricket World Cup 2015.

* The above statistics have been compiled using http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ for the duration of 1 year or 2 years (based on the statistic) till 31st Jan 2015.

Thursday, February 05, 2015

CWC 2015: Team to watch - South Africa

There hasn’t been a World Cup when South Africa were not considered as pre-favourites to win the cup. The fact that they didn’t win till now is an altogether different story. Cricketing, Non-cricketing and luck have played their part to ensure South Africa remains without a World Cup trophy. Duckworth Lewis is more popularly known after what they did to South Africa in one of the world cups. They had a game tied against Australia in the knockout stage and lost out because of Australia’s previous victory against them in the same event. Then had a close encounter against Australia again which they lost. They have been better performers in the group stages but haven’t won a single knockout match in the World Cup history. That’s something they have to correct this time.

Recent ODI Form – last 12 months *
South Africa team stats - Recent Form in ODI Cricket (last 12 months)

Form in Australia – last 24 months *
South Africa team stats - Recent Form in ODI Cricket in Australia (last 24 months)

Form in ODI World Cup events *
South Africa Cricket team statistic- Form in ODI World Cup eventsSouth Africa, statistically, are second only to the all-conquering Australia. They have a win / loss ratio of 2.3 in the last one year which is significant considering their opponents included Australia, Sri Lanka and New Zealand. Of the 7 games they have lost, 5 of them have come against Australia and 3 of those in Australia. This could be a significant statistic for the World Cup. If we ignore matches against Australia, South Africa’s statistics improves drastically (win / loss ratio changes from 2.3 to 8.0). That’s how powerful Australia has been and how powerful South Africa has been against other teams. South Africa’s world cup performance has been consistent but they have lost key matches (mainly knockouts) when it matters the most. For a rational / impartial fan, South Africa winning this edition of the World Cup will ensure that justice has finally been served.

SWOT Analysis – 
  • Strengths – 
    • Momentum, form and consistent superior performance
    • AB De Villiers and Hashim Amla will be a constant pain for opposition bowlers
    • Dale Steyn will do the same from the bowling department
  • Weaknesses – 
    • “Chokers” tag will continue to haunt till they prove otherwise
    • Top tournament performance (or the lack of it)
  • Opportunities – 
    • Relatively favorable pool, strong chance to finish 1st in the pool
    • Similar conditions back home and recent ODI series against Australia will help
  • Threats – 
    • Unpredictability in the pool can be the reason for concern
    • This edition of the World Cup also has knockouts (sarcasm)!

South Africa will rely on key players to deliver and it’s high time the likes of AB De Villiers and Hashim Amla make this their world cup. Not only from a personal standpoint, but also for the team cause. Hashim Amla is the fastest to reach 5000 ODI runs and De Villiers has the fastest ODI century to his credit. In my opinion, this is the most balanced squad of them all in the World Cup, even better than Australia on paper. It’s now a matter to show the same on the field. Steyn, Parnell, Morkel and Tahir are quite a handful. Baring 2003 World Cup, they have always cleared the group stage. So it will be a shock if they are eliminated early. What’s shocking is, when they come to knockouts, they just don’t know how to win. This is where their key players should come in.

South Africa needs to correct a lot of unwanted records they have against them. This could be the place for them to start. How great will it be for South Africa to get their hands on that trophy? Isn't that their final frontier? 

Click here to view all the posts on Cricket World Cup 2015.

* The above statistics have been compiled using http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ for the duration of 1 year or 2 years (based on the statistic) till 31st Jan 2015.

CWC 2015: Team to watch - Australia

If there’s one clear favourite with everything going for them, it’s Australia. Australia are the favourites for the tournament – whichever way you look at it (albeit emotionally). They play their “A game” every time irrespective of their opponent. They have won the World Cup more times than any other team. Their players all are in top form – Steven Smith, George Bailey, Mitchell Johnson, Glenn Maxwell, David Warner etc. Michael Clarke is on track to return to full fitness and will be ready for the World Cup. These are all world class players and are capable of turning a match on its head! They have been on a winning streak and have momentum going into a World cup which will be played at their own backyard. What more can you ask for?

Recent ODI Form – last 12 months *
Australia team stats - Recent Form in ODI Cricket (last 12 months)

Form in Australia – last 24 months *
Australia team stats - Recent Form in ODI Cricket in Australia (last 24 months)

Form in ODI World Cup events *
Australia Cricket team statistic- Form in ODI World Cup events
You don’t need to be a data scientist (although you wouldn’t mind being one considering the prospects) to know why Australia are the top team to beat and clear-cut favourites. They have a win / loss ratio of 3 over the last one year and are way ahead of 2nd placed team, South Africa, with 2.28 wins / loss. In fact, only two teams have a win / loss ratio that half as better as Australia – South Africa and India (1.75). That’s how far they are ahead of competition. Back home, they are head and shoulders above the rest with a won / loss ratio of 8. And needless to say, World Cup has been their forte with 4 cups out of a possible 10 – that’s a massive 40% of the times they have emerged champions, followed by India and West Indies with half of Australia’s achievements.

SWOT Analysis – 
  • Strengths – 
    • Form and momentum
    • Home conditions
    • In-form players
    • History of winning the big events 
  • Weaknesses – 
    • High expectations
    • Possibility of getting carried away
  • Opportunities – 
    • Relatively less competition till the semi-finals
    • Top opposition teams having mixed results
  • Threats – 
    • Lower placed teams are capable of causing shocks
    • Knockouts don’t rely on past results

A world cup at home, a form worth flaunting, momentum that opposition craves for, key players in top form – Australia has all that and more as they enter the World Cup arena. Australia have won the World Cup event a record 4 times but never at home. Is this the motivation they need? I expect Australia to win their pool, win against a lower team from the next pool in the quarter-finals and safely reach the semi-finals. This is where I think their real test starts. But then, by that time, they are just two games away from winning the World Cup in their backyard. That makes them clear-cut favourites to win the event. If you are a rational Cricket fan, there’s no way you can bet against this team. Australia may just be the team to rise down under.

Click here to view all the posts on Cricket World Cup 2015

* The above statistics have been compiled using http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ for the duration of 1 year or 2 years (based on the statistic) till 31st Jan 2015.

Wednesday, February 04, 2015

Cricket World Cup 2015 - Event Preview

Welcome to the grand extravaganza of the Cricketing world. A tournament where all the top Cricketing teams compete for the most coveted prize of them all in this sport. A tournament where players strive to make a name for themselves. A tournament where boys become men and men become legends. A tournament which is bound to be remembered for years and decades to come. A tournament which is watched by fans from all across the cricketing world. We call it the Cricket World Cup, quite an irony considering only a handful of teams play Cricket on the world stage. But to be fair to the game loved by millions of fans including me, this once-in-four-year event is still worth a dekko. Now that I am done with the sarcasm, let’s get down to facts.

Team India are the defending champions, winning in quite an extraordinary fashion in 2011 and defeating some of the favorites and past champions along the way, especially Australia and Sri Lanka. By winning the 2011 event, India handed a fitting return gift to their Cricket God – Sachin Tendulkar. Although that moment will be savored by Indian fans for years to come, this Indian team would have been better off with Sachin in their team for the 2015 edition! Australia, as always, start as favorites on their home soil. Pakistan, as always, enter the event as the most unpredictable team. Sri Lanka bids farewell to two of their stalwarts – Jayawardene and Sangakkara – which makes them the India of 2011. You expect South Africa to shed the “chokers” tag in every World Cup event. And then we have teams like New Zealand, England, West Indies etc to grab their moment of fame in this extravaganza. Watch out for teams like Bangladesh, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Scotland and UAE to make the most of their “swimming with the sharks” tale.

Format – Two pools (A and B) of 7 teams each. 

ICC Cricket World Cup 2015 Teams in Pool A and B

Each team has been seeded from 1 to 14. In a pool, every team will play every other team once, which means 6 matches per team. The top 4 teams from each pool will enter the knockout phase. In the quarters, A1 will play B4, A2 against B3, A3 against B2 and A4 against B1. One look at the pool and you will realize this is more like match practice for top seeded teams before their knockout phase. What’s surprising is that England and South Africa, two team who have never won the World Cup and were 7th and 5th respectively in the previous edition, are the top 2 seeds. I understand it’s based on the ICC ODI rankings, but don’t you think the seeding needs to be more intuitive?

Either ways, you’d expect England, Australia, Sri Lanka and New Zealand (despite being lower in seeding to Bangladesh) from pool A and South Africa, India, Pakistan and West Indies from pool B to qualify for the knockouts. 

But is it that simple? Isn't there more to it than meets the eye? 

Form factor – 

The lower placed teams in each pool are more than capable of springing a surprise. Bangladesh will be more than a handful for pool A teams. Bangladesh themselves know they are within touching distance of reaching the quarters if they play to their strengths. One upset is all its needed. Don’t expect Ireland and Zimbabwe to be mere pushovers especially considering the fact that pool B has some unpredictable teams. To make matters interesting, the top teams aren’t necessarily in top form. Teams like West Indies don’t have their top players for this World Cup. India’s best result in the recently concluded ODI series happened when rain gods stepped in and the match against Australia was abandoned. Sri Lanka and Pakistan are having mixed results off late.

In my opinion, following are the top teams to watch out for – 

Ignore these teams at your own peril – 

  • Pakistan
  • England

My Prediction – 
If I have to place my money on a team (metaphorically, I mean), it’d be Australia for obvious reasons, closely followed by South Africa and New Zealand. I have my reservations for Asian teams considering their recent form and Australian conditions. Historically speaking, the last time an Asian team won the World Cup in alien condition was when Pakistan defeated England in 1992 and the venue was Australia, that’s 23 years back! You see why I am so pessimistic about Asian teams?

Let the best team win. After all, there are four years of bragging rights for the taking!

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