Thursday, October 04, 2012

Analyzing the Knock-out stage of World T20

Like every other series (movies, books etc.) that ends in a trilogy, I thought of ending my 'series' on ICC World T20 as a trilogy too. And this is the third and final part of the series.

Previous posts on ICC World T20 Competition:
1. Interesting format of ICC World T20 - Click here
2. Analyzing the Super 8 stage of World T20 - Click here

Super 8 stage is done and dusted and 4 teams have qualified for the knock-outs. They are Sri Lanka and West Indies (from Group 1) and Australia and Pakistan (from Group 2). Four teams failed to make the cut including New Zealand, England, India and South Africa of which India was the most unfortunate one. Throughout this tournament, India had played 5 T20 matches winning 4 and losing one against Australia. That one loss, a terrible loss I may add, made all the difference for India. Also, Australia played very differently from the Australia we know of. Australians are known to be an aggressive team who will do anything (literally anything)  to win a match, even if it means sledging or bending the rules to favor them. On 2nd October, against Pakistan, they were concerned ONLY about reaching the semi-finals. That makes perfect sense for any team in this world. But Australians don't fit there. Strange. I am huge fan of the South African team and always felt they deserve more. They made me feel the same way this time too. Too much talent, but nothing to show for!

Analysis of Teams in the Knockout stage:
  • Sri Lanka: I feel Sri Lanka are the only team who has been consistent and are performing to their potential. They have played 5 matches, winning 4 of them and losing one (much like the Indian team) and 3 of their 4 victories came when they mattered the most (in the super 8 stage). The players are in great form. They also utilized a loophole in the laws of the game by having Sangakkara as captain in the last match of Super 8 so as to avoid any penalties to Jayawardene in the knock-out stage. Smart Strategy! Home support and local conditions will be a huge advantage. 
  • Australia: Australians have an apparent weakness - Shane Watson, or his absence. Of the 5 matches played by Australia, they won 4 of them and Watson was the man of the match in all 4. Watson failed in one and Aussies lost that match. That only shows the over-dependence on Watson. For Australia to lay hand on the only cup eluding them, others have to come to the party.  
  • West Indies: Pre-tournament favorites based on many experts. I would rather call them "Dark horses". They have won only 2 of the 5 matches they have played so far. But both the victories came during the super 8 stage. One of the victory (against New Zealand) went till the super over. So, we can safely assume that they haven't lived up to their favorites tag. Pollard is yet to show his class. Bowling is yet to fire on all cylinders. Batting is their strength and the only reason why they qualified. They have already lost to Australia once in this tournament and, based on form, I expect the same result in the semi finals. 
  • Pakistan: Unpredictable to the core. As I mentioned in my previous post, the result will depend on which Pakistan team plays that day. They lost tamely against arch rivals India only to tamely destroy Australians 2 days later! They are the only team to have qualified for the knock-outs in all the T20 World championships since its inception. They are the only team remaining who have won a T20 championship before. The match against Sri Lanka will be very difficult for them to overcome.

Prediction: A T20 match cannot be predicted at all. It can only be analyzed based on past performances and the momentum carried forward by both the teams. With this in mind, I will put forward 2 predictions. One - what I think would happen. Two - what I want to happen. Playing safe, you might add.

What I think would happen:

What I want to happen:

Don't be surprised if the outcome is exactly other that what I have predicted. It's T20, after all. Na tameez se khela jaata hai, na tameez se dekha jaata hai aur na tameez se analyze kiya jaata hai!

Hope you all enjoy the last 3 matches of ICC World T20 internationals.


  1. Binu, I want what you want with a slight change. I want sri lanka to win!!!!!!

    What a pity India is out :-(

    1. You wish got fulfilled, 50% atleast! Sri Lanka are in the finals as we speak. Indians were unlucky I think. We cannot blame the team as they won 4 out of 5 matches, but lost one when it mattered..

    2. it is a pity Jenny but India did not deserve to win at all..

    3. On the contrary Bkiramjit, I thought India actually played well in this T20 championship. But yes, they lost when it mattered and that made all the difference..

    4. did then.. hmm not according to me. THe only convincing win was against pakistan.. they need to get rid of the internal problems they have.. its more than meets the eyes..

      the match against SA they were never looking to get rid of them for the score required.. and moreover i felt that was the match they shud have got all the three spinners in..
      but them what do i know ,.. i am just a mere spectator

    5. Regarding internal problems, it was always there in the Indian team. Problems based on regional preference, captaincy preference and so on. I don't think the problems will fade away in the near future. Against SA, they should have had 3 spinners. I agree. We could've strangled them for runs. And just maybe, we could've qualified.

      So am I Bikramjit. A mere spectator too.

  2. Well what you want to happen is 50% happened .. sri lanka are their .. and who knows today the west indies might defeat australia.. if Gayle comes to form anything is possible.. I think Pollard is given too much attention, I have not seen him do much in many many games now .. if it was indian team he would have been out by now ..


    1. It seems you are a critic of the Indian team. I can understand. I used to be one too. Till Soccer happened :D

      As I reply, West Indies have already scored 205 in their innings and in all likelihood should qualify for the finals. Sri Lanka - West Indies match will be a treat!

    2. I came back to write here that i missed the WI batting and australia are already Two down.. so ur wish will be fulfilled today , unless WI bowl only full tossess all twenty overs ..

      I am a big fan of the cricket team, dont miss many matches but it hurts the way politics and internal bickering is there.. instead of playing for the nation its more of MONEY

      and hey Third wicket down as i right this

    3. And as I write this, 6 wickets down! Aussies are in complete disarray! I guess even full tosses wont help Aussies now.

      You know what, your comment on team playing for money rather than playing for the nation will be more strong once the Champions League starts in abt a week's time!

  3. Binu my my. WI won! And exact replica of the second diagram!!!

    1. Hehe.. So, what I want is what I got :D

  4. Woah. So True. I think there might be something common between you and Paul, the Octopus!

    1. Hehe.. That's why I gave 2 options.. And am happy that the option I so dearly wanted, I got it! Now that you are talking about Paul the Octopus - should I start earning by guessing the outcome?? :D


All yours..

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